Beyond EVs: Indonesia's Multi-Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions

Cyrillus Harinowo, a prominent banker and monetary expert, challenges the singular focus on electric vehicles (EVs) as the solution for Indonesia's decarbonization efforts. His recently published book, "Multi-pathway for Car Electrification," proposes a broader approach, incorporating various technologies to achieve the nation's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) vision by 2060.

A Multifaceted Approach to Decarbonization

Harinowo argues that the assumption of EVs as inherently environmentally friendly is overly simplistic. He highlights that factors like the electricity source used for charging significantly impact an EV's environmental footprint. In Indonesia, where a substantial portion of electricity is generated from fossil fuels, EVs might not be as green as perceived. "Low-cost green cars (LCGCs), hybrids, and flex-fuel vehicles can be more environmentally sound than some electric vehicles, depending on the electricity source used to charge them," he explains in his book.

The book meticulously examines diverse automotive technologies, including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), and explores strategies for effective carbon reduction. Its 26 chapters delve into the journeys of various countries in their decarbonization endeavors across Europe, America, and Southeast Asia, providing a comprehensive global perspective.

Harinowo's research was partially inspired by the UK's 2030 ban on conventional car sales, announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2020. While acknowledging the UK's commitment, he points out that Indonesia's public awareness of such drastic changes isn't as widespread. However, he suggests a phased approach could be more suitable for Indonesia, acknowledging the complexities involved.

Even with zero tailpipe emissions, EVs present challenges in Indonesia. The country's heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation (approximately 80%) means that even EVs contribute significantly to carbon emissions. This underscores the need for a multi-pronged approach, rather than solely relying on EV adoption.

Co-authored with Ika Maya Sari Khaidir, the book offers practical solutions for achieving economic sustainability and industrial growth while aligning with Indonesia's NZE goals. It advocates for a balanced approach, considering the strengths and limitations of various technologies in the Indonesian context.

The authors highlight the global shift towards decarbonization in the automotive sector. However, they emphasize the intricate nature of the transition to EVs, particularly in developing nations. Many global automakers are strategically deploying hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as intermediate steps towards full electrification.

Brazil's success in emission reduction offers valuable insight. By leveraging its sugarcane industry to produce bioethanol, Brazil has demonstrated the potential of biofuels as a sustainable alternative. This experience, coupled with Brazil's development stage being similar to Indonesia's, provides a compelling case study for Indonesia to explore.

Indonesia's Strategic Advantages

Harinowo believes Indonesia is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this technological diversity. The nation's substantial nickel reserves can be leveraged for EV and hybrid battery production. Furthermore, dominating the supply chain for both electric vehicle technology and flex-fuel engines presents significant economic and environmental opportunities.

The increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles in the US, reflected in 2023 sales data, further strengthens Harinowo's argument for a multi-pathway approach. This shift in consumer preference validates the need for a diversified strategy, catering to evolving environmental consciousness.

Harinowo's research directly challenges the prevailing belief in EVs as the sole solution for carbon emissions reduction. He emphasizes the importance of considering a broader range of eco-friendly automotive technologies, especially given Indonesia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for 2030, and the ultimate NZE goal by 2060. With the 2030 NDC deadline looming, he posits that non-electric, environmentally friendly vehicles represent a practical option for substantial emission reductions, potentially achieving up to a 50% decrease. "With the 2030 NDC deadline only five to six years away, non-electric, environmentally friendly vehicles remain a viable and preferable option for achieving significant carbon emission reductions, potentially reducing emissions by 50%." He acknowledges, however, that this perspective contradicts current trends.